2012 Economic Outlook Featured at January Meeting
2012 U.S. Banking Outlook Presented at Mini-Session
The Chapter’s January meeting was recently held on January
18, 2012 at the Stony Hill Inn in Hackensack.
Craig Dismuke, Chief Economic Strategist at the investment
advisory firm of Vining Sparks, was the featured dinner
speaker. Craig presented a very informative 2012
Economic Outlook. He was also a featured speaker at the
East Coast Regional Conference held this past September in
Newport, Rhode Island.
The afternoon mini-session featured a
2012 U.S.
Banking Outlook presented by Justin Hoogendoorn CFA,
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets.
Members and guests experienced two informative sessions
highlighting the prospective economic and banking climate
for the upcoming year. They also enjoyed a full course
dinner as well as the camaraderie of the cocktail hour
following the afternoon mini-session.
Craig Dismuke began the dinner
presentation by summarizing the economic factors experienced
in 2011 and noted that we can expect more of the same for
2012. The primary factors included the “drama” of the
European economy, weak domestic growth and the intervention
of the central bank. Craig noted how the banking sector
struggled throughout 2011, global stock prices fell while
domestic stock prices were stable. He noted that although
housing starts have flattened, the backlog of distressed
properties and falling home prices continue to hurt consumer
sentiment.
Craig summarized the key economic developments for 2012:
- Private investment will continue to be weaker than needed;
- Consumption will slow in the first half of 2012;
- Europe will continue to seek “half step” solutions;
- U.S. elections will have a big impact on domestic economic
direction.
Justin Hoogendoorn presented strategies to mitigate risk
and stabilize earnings for depository institutions at the
afternoon mini-session. He began by reviewing recent
economic factors. He noted that employment conditions are
beginning to show improvement, but jobs recovery is still
lackluster; the downside for housing remains and the
European debt crisis continues.
Justin explained that building excess liquidity for domestic
banks leads to shrinking net interest margins. He noted the
importance of developing investment strategies in the
context of the entire balance sheet that can be repositioned
over time to improve rates of return based on changing
economic factors. Craig discussed a strategy focusing on the
intermediate segment by adding bonds in the mid-range of the
curve.
Justin summarized the following key economic conclusions:
- Sovereign and household debt problems weigh on the
markets;
- Housing will continue to act as a drag on economic
growth;
- Labor market trends underscore structural problems
confronting the US economy;
- European debt crisis weighing on global markets;
- Rates are low and will likely remain low for at
least the next couple of years.
Topics and Speakers
2012 U.S. Banking Outlook