Chapter Holds Initial Central Jersey Breakfast Series Meeting
Expert Municipal Bond Market Outlook Presented by PNC Strategist Tom Kozlik
The NY/NJ Chapter recently held the first of a planned series of breakfast meetings designed specifically to enhance the professional development of financial decision makers at community banks in the central New Jersey region. The meeting was held at the Radisson Hotel of Freehold on January 14, 2016 in Freehold, NJ. The Chapter holds regular monthly meetings at the Stony Hill Inn in Hackensack, NJ which primarily serve community bankers in the northern New Jersey and metropolitan New York regions. Two additional central New Jersey breakfast meetings are scheduled on Thursday, March 10, 2016 and Thursday, May 5, 2016 which will also be held at the Radisson Hotel of Freehold.
Chapter President Brian McCourt welcomes attendees to the Chapter's initial Central New Jersey Breakfast Series meeting.
Featured speaker Tom Kozlik from PNC Capital Markets presented a Municipal Bond Market Outlook.
Tom Kozlik, Municipal Strategist from PNC Capital Markets, presented Municipal Bond Market Outlook: 2016, Focus on State and Local Government Credit Quality. Tom publishes municipal bond market commentary, evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of municipal bond market credit profiles and related investment portfolios. Tom discussed the current economic trends affecting the municipal market. Among the key themes Tom noted is that overall municipal bond credit conditions at the start of 2016 are favorable. He pointed out that an increasing number of credit profiles have the potential to improve during 2016 and there is no looming crisis affecting the overall municipal credit market. Tom explained how local governments are facing a “new fiscal reality” resulting from local tax revenue increases falling below pre-recession trends which has resulted in issuers facing credit quality downgrades.

Tom summarized a number of key factors affecting the municipal market. Tom expects municipal credit volume to range from $325 to $375 billion during 2016 as compared to $398 billion in 2015. He noted that although state and local governments generally have well-funded pension plans, funding has failed to recover to pre-crisis levels. He cautioned that local government downgrades are occurring at an above-average pace and that investors should continue to monitor credit profiles for signs of structural imbalance. He also feels that municipal investors today are less prepared for the next recession than for the 2009 market crisis.

Following his expert analysis and commentary, Tom answered a series of provocative questions from the financial managers in attendance.

Topic and Speaker

Municipal Bond Market Outlook: 2016

Thomas Kozlik photo
Tom Kozlik
Municipal Strategist
PNC Capital Markets
215 585-1083

Slide Presentation
Municipal Market Outlook 2016

Attendees listen to the presentation by Tom Kozlik after enjoying a hot and cold breakfast buffet.
Financial managers learn keen perspectives on the municipal bond market at the Central Jersey breakfast meeting.